Jobs

Multiplier

Also called job multiplier, economic multiplier.

A multiplier is the ratio an input-output model applies to an initial change in a project's spending, earnings or jobs to estimate the total change in output, value added, earnings or jobs in a chosen industry and region.

What it decides

Neither the statute nor USCIS names a model: 8 U.S.C. 1153(b)(5)(E)(v)(I) requires only that the methodology be economically and statistically valid, and 8 U.S.C. 1153(b)(5)(F)(i)(II) requires the same of the economic analysis a regional center files with Form I-956F. BEA's RIMS II, one common source, publishes final-demand employment multipliers, which give total jobs per $1 million change in final demand, and direct-effect employment multipliers, which give total jobs per one job in the final-demand industry; the two take different inputs and are not interchangeable. RIMS II employment multipliers are not measured in full-time equivalents, so a job the model reports is not yet a qualifying full-time job. USCIS reviews whether the multipliers and the geographic assumptions are reasonable, weighing the area's demographic structure, its contribution to the project's supply chains and its socioeconomic connectivity. A wider region generally carries a larger multiplier, so where the boundary is drawn moves the job total.

Governed by 8 U.S.C. 1153(b)(5)(E)(v)(I) and 1153(b)(5)(F)(i)(II); 8 CFR 204.6(j)(4)(iii) and 8 CFR 204.6(m)(3)(v); 6 USCIS-PM G.2(D)(5) (https://www.uscis.gov/policy-manual/volume-6-part-g-chapter-2); BEA RIMS II User's Guide (December 2013), tables 3.1 and 3.2 (https://apps.bea.gov/regional/pdf/rims/rimsii_user_guide.pdf)

Where this is explained properly

Pages here that go into multiplier rather than mentioning it.

Related terms

  • RIMS IIRIMS II is the Bureau of Economic Analysis multiplier set that estimates how much total output, value added, earnings and employment a given change in final demand generates in a chosen group of US counties, and it is the model behind many EB-5 regional center job studies.
  • Input-output modelAn input-output model is an accounting framework of interindustry purchases that estimates how spending on a project spreads into output and jobs across a regional economy. In EB-5 it is the standard way a regional center investor shows job creation, and it produces estimated jobs rather than a verified headcount.
  • NAICS codeA NAICS code is the North American Industry Classification System identifier for an industry, six digits at its most detailed level, and in EB-5 it fixes which input-output multipliers a job study applies to a project's spending and revenue.
  • Economic impact reportAn economic impact report is the economist's analysis that turns a project's spending, revenues or direct hiring into an estimated job total, and the project application a regional center files for each investment offering must include one. The statute and USCIS call it a credible economic analysis.

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